I read a fantastic interview today about the Marilyn Vos Savant, who is a writer (amongst other amazing things) and has been recorded as having the worlds highest IQ at 228.

Anyway, one of her core theories is that the majority of us joes - 'as sensitive to the world around us as we may be' lack the art of reasoning.

Now ive got the answer to this badboy... so im interested to see what you guys come up with (haha not calling you sensitive joes that is)

OK and no google cheating either! Read it and then answer in a post!

Suppose your on a gameshow, and your given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car and behind the other two are goats. You pick a door, say number one, and the host, who always knows whats behind the doors, opens another door, say number 3 which has a goat. The host then asks whether youd like to switch to door number 2 instead; is it to your advantage to do so?

Depends whether you'd prefer a goat or a car, you've a 50:50 chance of either?
Male or female Goat?
What kind of car?
Can I KO the gameshow host and take the lot?

I think the first thing I'd do is ask the host if he misheard my choice. Did he have that door opened on purpose or accident?

Qustions like this can play trickery on the mind because it doesnt expain what you can or can't do in this situation like ask him about the incorrect first choice...

First thing would be to say, I chose number 1 not 3 and even if that was a goat because he gave you a chance to swap he should ask again coz he got it wrong the first time. Of course unless this question has a hidden deviousness the car would be behind number 1 as the question quotes that he knows whats behind the doors.

Well assuming that the host knows whats behind the door and is not trying to trick you into swapping and you can't question him about the incorrect first choice I would probably take this approach...

I would say no I would like to swap to door 1. Because if originaly he got it wrong to not give you the car, you would think he would offer door 2 to trick you into choosing that one as it seems its the only 1 on offer and would either be a goat or a car so by choosing it you would be no worse off.

See so many weird scenarios that what add to the situation.

In a basic answer without all the crap and no hidden deviousness I would say yes because you would be no worse off car or no car....
'I just loved taking part and being on TV' hehehe

Where can we find a so called reasonable answer to this?

See this is why these questions are annoying. If the question has stated that you could stay on door 1 the answer would have been differant. My process of logic is actually good for the breakdown of the odds, but the question wasn't clear on the rules of the problem. I.E being able to stay on door 1 I wouldn't have waffled on with the other crap... LOL

I've seen this before, it's called The Monty Hall Problem.

Basically, it is the difference between us ordinary Joe's using intuition and using pure reasoning. We are led into believing that the choice is 50/50 but it is divided into thirds.

The answer is you should change your choice because you have a 2 in 3 chance of getting the car. If you stick, you have a 1 in 3 chance of getting the car.

I read it in a book called 'The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night Time' by Mark Haddon. It's about an autistic boy who is a mathematical genius and is very very funny.

Lesley Jackson wrote:
The answer is you should change your choice because you have a 2 in 3 chance of getting the car. If you stick, you have a 1 in 3 chance of getting the car.

Surely thats not true!...

START
3 doors
2 goats
1 car
= 1 in 3 chance

The host opens one door....

Now you have
2 doors
1 goat
1 car

So whether you keep to your choice, or change doors, it doesn't effect the fact that you now have a 1 in 2 chance. The fact one goat has been revealed surely has no bearing on this whatsoever!

Why would changing your choice improve your odds? As you still have no further information as to which door contains the car (he host is somewhat of a red herring in my opinion).

Its still completely random surely?

Interesting post Pete!

Err, unless I missunderstood, the game show host can just cheat and choose any one of the doors, thereby just chosing the ones with goats?

I dunno, I'm an artist, I don't like thinking logically

I remember reading this in "The Curious Incident..." and I'd forgotten how much it hurt my fragile little mind.

I still struggle to view it as anything but a 50/50 chance in the end, so it confirms what I already knew - I'm no genius.

Yes, when I read it it didn't make much sense to me either but it took me 3 times to get my GCSE Maths so I'm not really in a position to question its logic!

Besides, I'm an English teacher, logical thinking isn't exactly a prerequisite of the job!!

"Now children, close your eyes and pretend you're a tree...."